Who would've thought it? Another month gone and therefore another reading list! In April, I read a more concentrated range than I usually would. I started off with a very gripping tour throw Chernow's Hamilton, slowly read my way through the first volume of Gibbon's Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire, and then ended up reading three of Taleb's books.
Next month, I promise the reading will be a bit more diverse! So for simplicity, I'm going to link all the Taleb's together, and give as brief an overview as I can for the history, but anyway... let's get started!
The History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire - Edward Gibbon:
Well, first things first, a history of the history. This book is largely considered one of the greatest histories of the period in context ever written. It is an ambitious project covering over a thousand years of history. This first volume follows the course from the time of Augustus (27BC-14AD as emperor) all the way up to Constantine (306-337AD). There can be no question that this is one of the greatest histories ever written, and was a favourite of Lincoln, Churchill and many other influential figures of the past. The six volumes were written from 1776-1788. The question is... can you stomach all 3500 pages?
I could write pages on my highlights from just this first volume, but I am not going to do that. This is because I intend to read one volume of the history per month for the next 5 months to complete the history. Thus, each time I write in the reading lists I will simply focus on one or two topics of interest.
For me, the most riveting parts of this book come from the discussions surrounding religion and the rise of Christianity. I think Gibbon's take on early Christianity is very compelling and quite critical. It should be mentioned that Gibbon has a record for perhaps being quite anti-Christian, but the take was interesting on the general tolerance of the Roman people toward more religious freedoms, but the rise of Christianity eventually forced a more authoritarian series of governments (up until Constantine). The numbers Gibbon provides for the number of persecutions by Romans of Christians are surprisingly low - far lower than other persecutions which have happened historically, and thus we get an image of a Roman people which were perhaps less vicious than history of assassination makes out.
My other highlight from this volume was the relentless twists and turns throughout the Roman Emperors. We see assassination after assassination, plot after plot, coup after coup. My limited Roman knowledge prior to reading had not equipped me for quite the violence within the upper echelons and the Praetorians Guard. It seems that to many taking the purple was in fact nothing more than an act of delayed suicide.
Anyhow, when I have finished all six there will be a much more detailed review which will likely get its own entire blog post... so watch for that (hopefully in early October).
Alexander Hamilton - Ron Chernow:
To start with, Hamilton is one of my favourite musicals. The talent of Lin-Manuel Miranda in the production of that show is simply phenomenal and must be watched - at the very least on Disney+.
Right, musicals over. The book is simply a masterpiece of one of history's most influential figures.
It is not an overstatement to say that Hamilton was perhaps the most important person in forming the "modern" United States. This makes it very difficult, in my opinion, for Chernow to maintain and absolute and unbiased view, and yet, while reverential to Hamilton, Chernow manages to obtain a very fair balance.
Clearly, Hamilton had a checkered history - not least with the Reynolds Pamphlet he published with all the gory details of his affair, and his advocacy for duelling. But in many respects, Hamilton was far more admirable than the other founding fathers who's words did not live up their actions (namely Thomas Jefferson on slavery).
Perhaps, this was my biggest take away from the book: just how much I side with Alexander Hamilton over Thomas Jefferson. Hamilton has been a controversial figure throughout American history, but I truly believe he is one of the greatest states people to ever live and his prolific pen carries us through his lifetime easily when guided by the expert narrative of Ron Chernow. For history fans, (and those who liked the musical), I would argue that this tragedy is a must read.
The Incerto - Nassim Nicholas Taleb:
Ok, so I didn't read all of the Incerto books, but I did read three of them, so I'm bundling the three under one category under Taleb. I will shamelessly admit that I had read all three of these books before, and no doubt in the future I will be reading all of them again. For those interested / involved with finance, Taleb is without doubt a MUST READ! Below, I will give a short paragraph to each of the books I read.
I think the key behind anti fragile is in lessons for life. We do not want to be involved in systems which actually make us more susceptible to damage. Rather, we should strive to do the opposite of add fragility, namely to become "antifragile". Taleb starts this book with a rather long introduction pointing to what is the opposite of fragility? Is it robustness? No. It is things which gain from disorder.
For finance people, the main message is this: don't get involved in risks where you are fragile to extreme blowups in volatility. Manage your risk so that you are always prevented from the risk of ruin. This is the key takeaway of the first for me.
Next up we have skin in the game. The message here is that we should not be taking advice from people who do not have a position on themselves. From a philosophical standpoint, Taleb believes that advice-givers should be tied to the outcome which the advice-receiver gets. If I am told to buy a stock, and that stock goes down, then the person who recommended it should also lose out. This is the principal of skin in the game.
What I like about this though is how Taleb extends beyond finance. In medicine, for example, doctors may have incentives to prescribe something simply because failure to prescribe can result in lawsuits. This links in closely with anti fragility - our bodies are designed to heal and to repair so going to the doctor for every minor thing may only add to the fragility of the system!
Of the three, this was probably my favourite read!
The basic principle here is that in many professions, the upper echelons are populated more by luck than skill. I have a favourite phrase:
1) Success = Hard Work + Luck
2) Great Success = Hard Work + A lot of luck
This seems to be the principle espoused by Taleb. If you take a sample of 10000 fund managers, then in a random year 50% outperform and 50% underperform the market. Those who underperform are out. The next year, we're down to 5000 and the same again. Eventually, you have the people who by nothing more than chance have outperformed 10 years in a row. People think they're geniuses... but are they? The luck may run out. Past performance is no guarantee of returns.
While skin in the game is my favourite, I would highly recommend Fooled by Randomness to my finance followers. It is the most directly applicable. Probably my favourite quote from the book is Taleb saying he is 100% certain there is a Western tradable security that is 100% correlated with the weather in Ulan Bator in Mongolia by nothing more than chance. I half suspect he is correct.
Next Month:
Next month, I am going to be reading the second volume of the Decline and Fall, a short book of walking tours names "Walking London's History", Boris Johnson: The Gambler by Tom Bower (many thanks to Uncle Jeff for the present), Trillions, and Edward Luce's The Retreat of Western Liberalism. It should be a cracker.
AS always, please do reach out with your wonderful suggestions. Some of my favourite reads of the year have come from recommendations, so please do keep them coming! If you'd just like to chat books or markets... fill out the form at the top and drop me a message!
