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Wednesday, 4 September 2019

Could the Fed Become Political?

I want to start this article by apologising for the lack of content over the last couple of weeks, I have been on holiday and therefore haven't had any time to post. 

Today, I have decided to post something slightly different than my usual technical analysis and instead am looking at a more controversial issue which could shape monetary policy in the United States. 

Anyhow, earlier today I read two interesting articles from a former Federal Reserve Official regarding the politicisation of the Fed. Article 1 Article 2

To summarise the articles, Dudley essentially says that the Federal Reserve should not bow down to Trump and should fight back. The crux of the argument is that if the Fed bows down and cuts rates now, it could incentivise the President to be (even) more aggressive in imposing tariffs and hence make the interest rate cut worthless to the consumer. 

In turn, this would (to coin a phrase) reduce the amunition of the Federal Reserve in the event of a wider economic downturn. Dudley argues that the Fed could actually openly defy the President and refuse to play ball; to say that they would not support self-inflicted injury to the United States economy. 

Dudley was keen to stress that the Fed should not back a Presidential candidate in the election as this would be a step too far, but he did suggest that the Fed could present its arguments to the President, which could force him to rein in his rhetoric. 

What I personally find most interesting about this suggestion, is that it implies that the Federal Reserve has a duty not just to the United States, but also to the world. Chairman Powell is in a dangerous place because a deterioration of the world economy will undoubtedly cause a deterioration of the US economy, and thus, he must act to support the world economy and the US economy. By bowing down before the President, he will be exacerbating the trade war, and causing the recession which he is already trying to avoid. 

The controversy surrounding these articles was so great that Dudley felt the need to clarify many of his comments in the second article. Ironically, he blames the politicisation of the Fed upon President Trump's criticisms of the Federal Reserve and specifically on the criticism of Chairman Powell. 

Let me know any thoughts you have in the comments about whether the Fed should be more political. 

Thanks


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