The Week Ahead

 Hi Everyone. I'm pleased to report... I'm back! Last week I was felled by a pretty nasty bout of flu so spent most of the week trying to recover a bit in bed - many thanks to those of you who sent out search parties looking for me. 

The good news is, I'm back this week, and it doesn't stop there - since I now also have access to a Refinitiv account, so I should be able to also start being a bit quicker with getting you news / sending over some nice charts. 

I'm still trying to get back into the swing of things though, so will keep this week ahead very brief. 

Basically, the main thing I will be watching is the continued expansion of the inflation / taper narrative. Looking to Canada, we have the BoC decision on Wednesday and they have generally been reasonably hawkish so this will be one to keep an eye on. On Thursday, we have the ECB monetary policy decision as well. This will definitely be interesting to see if we get any more guidance on what the ECB will plan to do with its pandemic purchase programme (PEPP) after the expiry of the current envelope due in March. 

It is possible we start to see a bit more of a roll into the Asset Purchase Programme, but more details will be awaited. Something else I thought worth flagging was the chart below from John Authers - it's been a long time since the ECB had to deal with German inflation running above 4%... could this feature into the narrative? 

I will, of course, strive to get you an ECB primer before EOD on Wednesday ready for the Thursday rate announcement at 1245 London. 

Also worth a watch will be US GDP data coming Thursday. This could be interesting just to see how much of an impact delta might have had on the numbers. From my perspective, earnings season has seemed pretty solid so far, so if there's any read across from that, I wouldn't be surprised to see some decent numbers for GDP. Then we get the commensurate data for Europe Friday. 

As promised, I've kept this brief. More to follow tomorrow. Trade idea wise, my AUDUSD longs took profit while I was ill, so the only one I'm left in is long EURCHF, and I still think this is my high conviction trade... despite the way the market keeps moving against me. 

Good luck and happy trading.