Week Ahead

Apologies for my absence the last couple of days in generating trade ideas and writing updates on the markets. I've been quite busy moving into a new uni house and then catching up with old friends so haven't found quite the same level of time to post. 

I have, however, been writing frequently to email subscribers - to become part of that list... fill out the blogger form on the top right. 

Also, truth be told, I haven't had a huge amount of conviction on new trade ideas, I still like the look of EURCHF longs as well as taking profit on my AUDCAD trade. 

The View from the Charts: 

In the week ahead, the main thing I am looking for is what happens with EURUSD and whether we can sustain this 1.16 level we seem to have found. Also interesting is gold at the moment which made an aggressive push to 1764 overnight, but has since pulled back again. On the 15m chart I think this definitely looks like a double top, so would try shorting below 1760 and you can also have a decent tight SL. Watch for the false breakouts above 1764 though, and always consider re-shorting if we drop back below. 

Also charts wise, there is some interesting trend lines I've been watching on SPX for a while now and it still seems to be holding as a support (having jumped from support to resistance a few times). Also might just have the makings of a potential reverse head and shoulders in SPX, but I don't have much conviction on that front. 

The Week Ahead: 

For me, payrolls is the only thing to worry about in the week ahead, and fear not I will definitely be putting out a preview for the report once again as well as live commentary to email subscribers. 

It's still early days for a consensus number but I wouldn't be surprised to see a fairly sizeable beat this month given the weakness from August, but we shall see. Remember, anything which can be described as fairly decent in terms of the employment report means the Fed will likely liftoff in November (or at least, announce liftoff). 

Other than that, look for further talk on the commodities shortages - there was an FT article this morning on iPhone delivery times being extended further into the future. 

Central Banks: 

Tomorrow (Tuesday), we have the RBA decision - I'm not convinced there will be any drama this time around but again there is a possibility for further hawkish talk - if AUDCAD was still in play I'd be hesitant to get short until after this event has cleared. 

Lagarde will also be speaking tomorrow at the annual general assembly of Wirtschaftsinitiative FrankfurtRheinMain marking their 25th anniversary. (Yes... I copied that direct from the ECB website). But don't be alarmed - this should be a minor speech and won't shift the ECB narrative.

Wednesday we have the RBNZ which again will be interesting given that they surprised at the prior meeting by not hiking rates. Consensus is for a hike to 50bps from 25bps currently. If we see further information about the timelines for the next hike this could be interpreted as a hawkish move. 

Thursday we have a lot of ECB chatter again from various board member's so watch for that. Macklem also speaks as well as Williams from the Fed. 

And Friday we wrap up with payrolls. 

All-in-all, a pretty busy week, but don't expect markets to be too dramatic pre-payrolls. Generally will just see various holding patterns forming until we get the data. 

Happy Trading All!